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AfDB predicts 3.9% growth in Morocco from 2021

Real GDP growth in Morocco is expected to be 3.7% in 2020 and 3.9% from 2021, predicts the African Development Bank (AfDB).

“The medium-term economic outlook in Morocco remains favorable and real GDP growth is expected to rebound to 3.7% in 2020 and 3.9% from 2021,” says the AfDB in its annual report on “the economic outlook in Africa”, presented Thursday at the Bank’s headquarters in Abidjan.

In addition, the Bank indicates that since 2013, the momentum of diversification of exports in the value chains of global trades has been consolidated (+13% for the automobile, +8.2% for the food industry, +10.1% for aeronautics and +6% for electronics).

Since 2013, the weight of the secondary sector in GDP has remained almost constant (26.1% on average) and the weight of agriculture in GDP has also stagnated at 12.1% on average.

According to the report, the budget deficit, financed by the domestic market fell to 3.6% of GDP in 2019 and is expected to reach 3.3% in 2021 thanks to better fiscal performance and better control of spending.

Treasury debt, estimated at 65.3% of GDP in 2018, is expected to fall to 65.1% in 2019, and then to 63.1% in 2021, as a result of stronger real GDP growth.

As for the current account deficit, 5.5% of GDP in 2018 due to the oil bill and imports of capital goods, it should decrease from 4.6% in 2019 to 3.9% in 2020, then to 3.7% in 2021.

Regarding inflation, the AfDB estimates that it should be around 1% over the 2019-2021 period.

In addition, the Bank notes that Morocco’s strategic geographic position can serve as a projection hub for foreign companies wishing to operate or establish themselves in Africa.

The amendment of the PPP (Public-Private Partnership) law and the advanced regionalization policy offer investment opportunities to the private sector, indicates the AfDB, stressing, nevertheless, that “the strong dependence of agriculture on the climate could hinder growth”.

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