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Economic conjoncture: 2.9% growth in the fourth quarter of 2018

The High Commissioner for Planning confirms the slowdown of the national economy in the last quarter of 2018. The rate was 2.9% against 4.4% in the same period of the previous year. This can be read in the latest information note of the HCP on the national economic situation in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Commenting on this development, the HCP indicates that “this growth was driven by the final consumption of households and this in a context of controlled inflation and a need for financing of the national economy on the rise”.

The slowdown was observed in all sectoral activities except services. At the level of the primary sector, the growth rate rose from 10.9% in the same period of 2017 to 2% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Thus, the agricultural value added was 3.5% against 13.6%. The fishing sector returned to 15.7% instead of 16.9%.

The HCP also observes a slowdown in the value added of the secondary sector in volume terms. Its growth rate moved from 4.6% to 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018, mainly as a result of the slowdown in the rate of growth of the extractive industry’s activities (0.3% compared to 19.9%) and building and public works (0.4% vs. 1.9%). At the same time, the value added of the tertiary sector consolidated in the last quarter of the year. It climbed to 3.1% from 2.9% in the same quarter a year earlier.

This increase is marked by an improvement in trade activities (4.5% vs 2.2%), financial and insurance services (3.9% vs 2.1%), post and telecommunications (2.7% vs 0.5%) and education, health and social services (0.8% vs 0.6% decline). For this purpose, the value added of non-agricultural activities increased by 2.9% instead of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2017.

As for domestic demand, it posted a growth rate of 2% over the same period, compared to 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2017. It thus contributed 2.2 points to national economic growth against 4.2% points a year earlier. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 3.9% against 1.9%, contributing 2.2 points to growth instead of 1.1 points. The increase was also observed at the level of final consumption of general government. It climbed to 1.9% from 1.2% a year earlier, a contribution to growth of 0.3 points instead of 0.2 points.

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