The Fund For Peace (FFP), a US research and education institution, recently released its Fragile State Index (FSI) report, listing 178 states according to their stability and highlight the issues facing weak and failing states. The aim is to enable decision-makers and the general public to assess political risks and to prevent conflicts quickly.
The State Fragility Index is based on a conflict assessment framework, the Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST), developed by the Peace Fund to assess the vulnerability of states. It has been designed to measure this vulnerability in pre-conflict, active conflict and post-conflict situations, says the FFP.
Twelve conflict risk indicators are used to assess the fragility of a state, divided into four categories: cohesion (security apparatus, division of elites, social cohesion); the economy (economic decline, inequality in economic development, brain drain); politics (legitimacy of the state, public services, human rights); social (demographic pressure, refugees and internal displacement, external intervention).
Ranked 78th with a score of 73 (120 being the best), Morocco is ahead of Algeria (72), Iran (52), Lebanon (44), Egypt (34), Mauritania (31st), Libya (28th) and Iraq (13th). Ranked second in North Africa behind Tunisia, Morocco is among the top ten Arab countries, behind the United Arab Emirates, ranked first in the region, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia.
In addition, Morocco loses 1 point compared to 2018, 1.4 compared to 2014 and 4.1 compared to 2009.
By indicator, the kingdom obtains the score of 5.2 in terms of secure devices (1 being the worst score, 10 being the best); against 6.6 for the elite division; 8.5 for social cohesion; 5.2 for economic decline; 5.4 for inequality in economic development; 7.9 for brain drain; 6.8 for the legitimacy of the state; 4.8 for utilities; 6.2 for human rights; 4.6 for population pressure; 5.9 for refugees and internally displaced persons; 5.8 for external interventions.
“Morocco, a country that has also managed to resist the spiral of violence that has affected much of the Arab world in the days following the revolutionary upheavals of 2011, is also facing its own challenges. Morocco has experienced a steady deterioration of the FSI by looking at the five- and ten-year trends in general economic indicators and brain drain,” the report says. “Demonstrators and opposition figures have said that while the Moroccan government has committed to improving its resources through ambitious economic growth plans and investments in the years following the regional uprisings, the general population has seen little or no change,” says the report.
The index on state fragility also mentions the “warning of observers from the North Africa region – particularly the Maghreb countries such as Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia in particular – in the coming years. The very conditions that triggered the popular mass uprisings, which later became the Arab Spring, did not dissipate. In fact, many of the economic, social and political indicators that began to deteriorate in previous editions of the Fragile State Index are getting worse.”
Overall, the report is dominated by Finland (178th), Norway (177th), Switzerland (176th), Denmark (175th) and Australia (174th). On the other hand, Yemen is ranked 1st, Somalia 2nd, South Sudan 3rd, Syria 4th and Congo 5th.