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A Brexit without an agreement would greatly benefit China and the United States, while other trading partners, peripheral to the European Union could lose big, according to a recent report of the United Nations. Among them, Morocco.
Who will benefit, or not, Brexit? While uncertainty remains over the outcome of the discussions on how to exit the UK from the European Union, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published on 9 April a full report on the gains and losses of UK trading partners.
In the no-deal scenario – the departure of the single market and the customs union without a transitional period – Morocco would be among the losers of Brexit. The Kingdom would see its exports to the United Kingdom cut by $ 97.1 million (about 86 million euros).
Morocco, eighth loser in case of a “no-deal”
According to the report, the UK market represents 11% of Morocco’s exports. This shortfall would make Morocco the eighth largest trading partner to suffer from the scenario of the exit of Europe. The UN report stresses that the countries around the European Union would be the most affected by this shortfall. Morocco comes after countries like Ecuador, Switzerland, Cambodia, Iceland, Norway, South Korea, Turkey, and the European Union.
At the North African scale, Tunisia appears as the second most impacted market, with $ 48.8 million amputated. It is followed by Egypt with a loss of 41.3 million. Algeria, it would lose too, but much less than its neighbors with only 4.5 million dollars in the event of divorce between British and Europeans.
“Brexit is not just a regional issue,” said Pamela Coke-Hamilton, head of UNCTAD’s International Trade Division. “When the UK leaves its 27 EU partners, it will alter the ability of non-EU countries to export to the UK market,” she added.
Turkey, heavily impacted
A no-deal “would significantly affect the conditions of access to the UK market for both developing and developed countries,” said the UNCTAD report.
The United Kingdom is an important trading partner for many emerging countries, whose exports have so far enjoyed very favorable conditions for access to the UK market, thanks in particular to EU preferential schemes, UNCTAD reports. Turkey, in this sense, would be the second biggest loser in case of “no-deal”. It would be deprived of $ 2.4 billion in exports.
With 3.5% of world trade and $ 680 billion in goods from the rest of the world, the UK market could be a big blow to the EU in the first place. More than half of UK exports come from European countries, which in the event of no-deal are likely to be cut by nearly $ 35 billion.
Chinese and Americans would rub their hands
If some people can start to gloom, others may rejoice. If London leaves the EU without an agreement to protect its current trading partners, it “would increase the relative competitiveness of major exporting countries like China or the United States,” says Pamela Coke-Hamilton.
Indeed, according to the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), a country can not grant preferential treatment to a trading partner and must apply the same taxes to all, except in the case of a trade agreement.
China could thus pocket an additional $ 10.2 billion (9 billion euros) in exports to London. The United States would earn $ 5.3 billion (4.7 billion euros). Japan can hope to see its exports to the United Kingdom rise by some $ 4.9 billion. This figure would be $ 4 million for Thailand, $ 3 billion for South Africa. On the other hand, India, Brazil, Russia, Vietnam, New Zealand, Canada, Australia, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Argentina are also likely to garner gains, according to UNCTAD.
