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HCP: Growth, Employment, Investment

2019 should be a complicated year for the national economy. The forecast of the High Commission for Planning (HCP) was confirmed and expect limited growth to 2.9% instead of 3% in 2018, with inflation declining to 1.2% in 2019 from 1.6% in 2018.

“The slowdown in economic growth in 2019 should result in low net job creation,” warned Ahmed Lahlimi, head of the HCP. Thus, the participation rate will slightly decline, leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate (to 10.1% instead of 10% in 2018 and 10.2% in 2017). Domestic demand, however, would continue to drive growth in the Moroccan economy with growth in household and government consumption. Exports are also expected to grow by 5% despite the drop in global demand to Morocco, tempers the HCP.

For its part, the investment begins to mark a significant shortness of breath, explains the HCP. Thus, its annual average is in a downward trend, rising to almost 32.2% between 2018 and 2019, after having been of the order of 33.5% over the period 2010-2017.

As for the national savings rate, it should be 27.7% of GDP in 2019 instead of 28% in 2018 and 28.9% in 2017. Finally, the overall debt ratio continues to increase, rising from 82% of GDP in 2017 to 82.2% in 2018 and 82.5% in 2019. Same upward trend for the Treasury which would increase from 65.1% of GDP in 2017 to 65.8% in 2018 and 66.1% in 2019.

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