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After its strong recovery in 2021, the Moroccan economy is now facing many challenges such as the effects of the slowdown in the world economy, the severe drought suffered in 2022 and the significant consequences for the current financial year, the repercussions of the international geopolitical context and the growing inflationary pressures… Not sure that it should get out of this mess without firing a shot.
Morocco is feeling intense inflationary pressures in this, even if it is more moderate than in other countries. Also faced with these shocks, such as high inflation or rising interest rates, sluggish investments and the international geopolitical context (Ukrainian conflict in particular)…, necessarily that economic growth on a global scale slows “to the point that the ‘global economy is dangerously close to slipping into recession,’ reads the World Bank’s recently released ‘Global Economic Prospects’ report. It will be the first time in over 80 years that there will be two global recessions in a decade.
Pessimistic forecasts therefore, and which would make 2023 a year hardly less gloomy than those marked by a full recession in 2009 and 2020, the World Bank nevertheless expects and as a consolation a rebound in 2024 with a growth of 2.7%. In detail, it estimates that developed economies will grow by 0.5% this year (compared to 1.7% expected last June). For the Eurozone, zero growth is forecast, compared to 1.9% previously forecast.
On the side of emerging or developing countries, the institution forecasts a slowdown to 3.4%, or 0.8 percentage points less than the forecasts of last June. Finally, the World Bank predicts that global trade will grow by 1.6% in 2023, compared to forecasts six months earlier (last June) of 4.3%.
According to Banque du Maroc forecasts, growth in the MENA region is expected to slow to 3.5% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. oil, where growth is expected to fall to 3.3 and 2.3 percent in 2023 and 2024, respectively, from 6.1 percent in 2022. In Morocco, the Bank further tells us, growth is expected to accelerate to 3.5 percent in 2023 (lower than previous projections) and 3.7 percent in 2024 as the agricultural sector gradually recovers from last year’s drought. Public spending should partly offset the weakness in household consumption due to high inflation.
The sharp drop in growth is also expected to be widespread, with forecasts revised or “revised” down for around 95% of advanced economies, and around 70% of emerging and developing economies. Over the next two years, average per capita income growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to be 2.8%. In sub-Saharan Africa – home to around 60% of the world’s poorest people – per capita income growth is expected to average 1.2% in 2023-24.
David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group, commenting on this situation made it clear: “The development crisis is worsening as the outlook for global growth deteriorates. Emerging and developing market economies are facing a multi-year slowdown in growth rates due to heavy debt burdens and weak investment, as global capital is taken over by advanced economies facing very high levels of public debt and at high interest rates”.
Malpass further indicated that “weak business growth and investment will compound severe setbacks in education, health, poverty reduction and infrastructure, as well as increased demands related to climate change”.
